Expert Pick of the Week: 2023 Arlington Million

Aug 10, 2023 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

The $1 million Arlington Million (G1) will be held at Colonial Downs for the first time this season, and it attracted a well-matched field of 11. Run at 1 1/4 miles on the turf, the historic event is led by defending champion Santin for conditioner Brendan Walsh, but I will look elsewhere with my leading selections. 

Conditioner Chad Brown has a pair of major contenders in the field, led by United Nations S. (G1) victor Adhamo. By Intello, the five-year-old has kept fine company since arriving in the U. S. in early 2022. The chestnut is not the most consistent horse in training, but he can really pack a punch on his best day and comes in fresh for a seasonal bow at a distance that I feel is his best one. He is the Expert Pick of the Week. 

The Irish-bred chestnut commenced 2022 with a quartet of graded top-three finishes in succession, with a trio of those occurring at the Grade 1 level. The top pick was unplaced in his final two runs as a four-year-old, but he is training well as of late and has proven to be capable of doing good things off of the layoff for an expert barn with horses running off of morning works. The late runner lands in a field with enough early foot to aid his closing kick and will be rallying inside the final furlong with Flavien Prat in the stirrups.

The Juddmonte homebred Set Piece is as honest as they come and is deserving of a Grade 1 tally before he retires for conditioner Brad Cox. The Dansili gelding was fourth as the favorite in the contest last campaign and brings solid form to the field at a distance that is still a question mark to him. The dark bay gelding is a one-run closer who fires nearly every time out, and I like both his post position and his current form cycle in advance of this major assignment on Saturday.

Set Piece, who bagged the Arlington S. (G3) at Churchill Downs two back, has posted four solid morning drills leading up to the tussle and figures to sit a sensible trip from off the pace while saving ground from the opening bell. Regular pilot Florent Geroux coming in to ride is a positive. 

An exacta with #9 Adhamo on top of #3 Set Piece in the 2023 Arlington Million is the Best Bet of the Week.