Verifying, Reincarnate square off in Rebel

Trainer Brad Cox, who has won six Road to the Kentucky Derby events in the past three months, tries to continue his momentum with Verifying and Giant Mischief. Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, fresh off an historic 10,000th career win, has a three-strong team led by Red Route One. And Southern California shipper Reincarnate comes off a breakthrough in the Sham (G3).

The likelihood of rain in the Saturday forecast adds another variable to a fascinating renewal. 

Here are five Rebel talking points:

1. Verifying boasts juvenile form and a strong allowance win over the track.

Sired by Triple Crown winner Justify, and a half-brother to champion Midnight Bisou, Verifying has shown great potential to live up to that pedigree. He wired his debut at Saratoga and finished second (on a sloppy track) in the Champagne (G1), but a troubled start in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) contributed to his sixth-place effort. 

Verifying kicked off 2023 with an allowance romp at Oaklawn over Gun Pilot and Two Eagles River, who both came back to win their next starts. Possible concerns for Verifying are the rail draw, leaving no margin for error at the break, and the abundance of rivals with forward running styles.

2. Sham winner Reincarnate ships in for new trainer Tim Yakteen.

Reincarnate has shaped like a thoroughgoing router all along, which is why he’s never raced at less than a mile. Although the son of champion Good Magic had displayed solid tactical speed, his front-running performance in the Jan. 8 Sham was a revelation because he went much faster, and held on resolutely. He was ineligible for points then in the barn Bob Baffert, who is suspended by Churchill Downs Inc. But his transfer this week to trainer Tim Yakteen means that he can rack up points from now on. 

The flashy gray colt’s name alludes to ancestor Holy Bull, a Hall of Famer renowned for carraying his speed up to 1 1/4 miles. Reincarnate will try to prove worthy of that reference and do Holy Bull proud. 

3. The forecast pace scenario helps Southwest (G3) runner-up Red Route One.

Red Route One has been knocking on the door in points races. Third to champion Forte in the deep Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and a traffic-stymied fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), he was most recently a closing second to unbeaten Arabian Knight in the Jan. 28 Southwest in the slop here. Red Route One will get a better set-up in the Rebel, and the Asmussen runner should be gaining momentum late.

Stablemate Gun Pilot, like Red Route One, is a son of Gun Runner eligible to improve. Although previously no match for Verifying, Gun Pilot was making his two-turn debut that day, and he got tired up front. Gun Pilot moved forward in his own subsequent allowance win, rallying from just off the pace to dismiss Bourbon Bash handily, and he could pose more of a challenge to Verifying in the rematch. Asmussen’s other entrant, Powerful, was last seen landing the 6 1/2-furlong Ed Brown S. at Churchill Downs. Stretching out off the layoff is a question mark, especially since he’s drawn in post 2 and figures to contest the pace.

4. Giant Mischief, Confidence Game, and Frosted Departure need to step up from past efforts on the trail.

Cox’s other runner, Giant Mischief, was a gallant runner-up in the Springboard Mile after whiffing the start. With a clean break at Remington, Giant Mischief arguably would have stayed undefeated. The son of leading sire Into Mischief will appreciate a strong pace, although this is a deeper level of competition. 

In contrast, Confidence Game and Frosted Departure are speedy types who need to work out a trip in the speed-laden Rebel. Confidence Game wired a salty Churchill Downs allowance two starts back, upsetting the future winners of the Holy Bull (G3) (Rocket Can) and Withers (G3) (Hit Show), but last out, he retreated to third in the Lecomte (G3). Frosted Departure appeared to have found his niche as a sprinter, placing third to Powerful in the Ed Brown before capturing Oaklawn’s Renaissance S. But Frosted Departure got another two-turn chance in the Southwest and boxed on gamely for third.

5. Talladega and Event Detail jump straight into the deep end off maiden wins.

Talladega broke his maiden on the Southwest undercard, leading throughout on a wet-fast track at this distance. He took four starts to win, though, and has a taller task here. Event Detail won in style from off the pace at Turfway Park, but now goes from the synthetic Tapeta to dirt versus tougher opposition.