Takeaways from 2023 Rebel Stakes

Feb 28, 2023 James Scully/TwinSpires.com

The
$1 million Rebel (G2), the third of four qualifiers at
Oaklawn Park, took place over a sloppy track on Feb. 25, and Confidence Game
jumped to the top of the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with the 50-point prize in the Road to
the Kentucky Derby series race.

1. Upsetter
with upside

Overlooked at 18-1, Confidence Game made his third stakes
attempt a winning one, stalking the pace in fifth before advancing wide on the
far turn. He blew into a clear lead while straightening for home and held a pair of late runners safe in deep stretch, scoring by a length. Regular
rider James Graham was up for Keith Desormeaux.

His initial stakes appearance, the Iroquois (G3) last
September, went poorly, but Confidence Game was exiting an improved third in
January’s Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds, chasing a wickedly fast pace while the
top two finishers rated patiently. He continued to show more in the Rebel,
registering a career-best 95 Brisnet Speed rating, and those figures may
continue to rise following a confidence-building win.

Closers have been in vogue this year, winning eight of the
last 10 Kentucky
Derby qualifiers before the Rebel, but Confidence Game will bring tactical
speed to future engagements, netting triple-digit Early Pace ratings in the last two
starts. He’s discovering his best form at the right time of year.

“He started off pretty immature, but as the races went on,
he has improved things mentally, and physically,” Desormeaux said. “He keeps
maturing and doing things the right way. I think the sky is the limit for him.”

2. Zenyatta’s
nephew overlooked at auction

Owned by Don’t Tell My Wife Stables, Confidence Game boasts
strong bloodlines but attracted little interest at the 2021 Keeneland September
yearling sale, with Desormeaux expertly selecting him for $25,000. The dark bay
colt is by Candy Ride, who stands for a $75,000 fee and is best known for
producing top young sire Gun Runner, the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner
and 2016 Kentucky Derby third-placer. Confidence Game hails from the Bernardini
mare Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta and multiple Grade
1-winning millionaire Balance. Zenyatta earned more than $7.3 million, counting
the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic among her 17 stakes victories, and she
discovered her best form as an older horse.

3. Cox duo
comes up empty as Red Route One, Reincarnate earn minor awards

A troubled fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), Red Route One got on track too late
when recording a non-threatening second to Arabian Knight in the Jan. 28
Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park, and he saved his best for the final five-sixteenths
of a mile in the Rebel, rallying dramatically from last on the far turn to be a
clear second. The Gun Runner colt needs to get involved earlier to be more
effective, and perhaps longer distances will benefit the Steve Asmussen-trained
deep closer.

Reincarnate, a
maiden special weight winner two starts previously, was exiting a pair of
wire-to-wire tallies over short fields at Santa
Anita, including a fast win over four rivals in the Jan. 8 Sham (G3), but the
big colt found himself in unfamiliar territory leaving the starting gate of the
Rebel, getting shuffled back toward the rear after breaking a little slowly. Reincarnate
was not discouraged, offering a bold rally to reach a threatening position by
deep stretch, but he was suddenly cut off by a tiring foe. The gray son of Good
Magic quickly regained his momentum, surging for third under the wire, and
Reincarnate gained valuable seasoning while displaying the ability to overcome
adversity.

The place holders turned in commendable efforts, but the Brad
Cox-trained duo of Verifying and Giant Mischief disappointed at short
odds. Verifying, the 3-2 favorite off a convincing allowance win, was in
position to challenge before coming up empty in the final furlongs, finishing
about three lengths behind Reincarnate in fourth. Giant Mischief launched a
brief bid on the far turn before weakening in the stretch to sixth as the 2-1
second choice.