Expert Pick of the Week: 2023 Louisiana Derby

Mar 21, 2023 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

An
excellent field of a dozen three-year-olds will travel 1 3/16 miles on the Fair
Grounds dirt oval in Saturday’s lucrative $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2). The
2023 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series contest will reward the
top-five finishers with qualifying points towards the Run for the Roses on a
100-40-30-20-10 structure.

Conditioner
Steve Asmussen has a pair of contenders entered for the event, including
Winchell Thoroughbreds’ homebred Disarm.

The chestnut finished a solid second to a nice prospect in a one-mile
allowance test at Oaklawn Park while making his 2023 debut last time out, and I
expect the son of Gun Runner to take a big step forward in his graded stakes
bow on Saturday. He is the Expert Pick of the Week.

Disarm
debuted at Churchill Downs in June and overcame a poor start to finish a
good third, beaten by two lengths, in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight dash
on the dirt. In his subsequent performance at Saratoga on Aug. 6, the
chestnut started slowly once again but more than made up for it late by
powering home an emphatic, 6 1/4-length graduate while running seven panels.

The
colt comes in with a trio of useful morning moves in preparation of his initial
try at Fair Grounds, and I expect him to thrive with the added ground in the
feature. He is a half-brother to a champion stayer in South America, and the
three-year-old has always done his best work later in his races leading up to
this stage of his development. Joel Rosario comes in to guide the top selection
for the first time.

I
believe that multiple horses could fill the minor awards in the deep event.
Lecomte S. (G3) victor Instant Coffee,
Todd Pletcher’s unbeaten Kingsbarns, and the Cherie DeVaux-conditioned Cagliostro, who was a sharp runner-up in a recent allowance tilt on the course, will be in
the mix late with their best respective performances.

An exacta with #5 Disarm on top of #2 Instant Coffee, #6 Kingsbarns, and #7 Cagliostro in the 2023 Louisiana Derby is the Best Bet of the Week.