Parchment Party intrigues at a price in KDFW Pool 3

Jan 20, 2024 Kellie Reilly/Brisnet.com

You can make cases for a lot of the untapped talent in Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager this weekend. I’d like to highlight the appeal of #28 Parchment Party, a 40-1 shot on the morning line.

Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott for Pin Oak Stud, Parchment Party sports a 2-for-2 record. Both of his wins have come in eye-catching, last-to-first rallies at Churchill Downs. His Sept. 15 maiden and Nov. 9 allowance were each contested over 1 1/16 miles, establishing his proficiency over a route of ground, and his unflappable attitude in traffic.

CONSTITUTION’s 2YO colt Parchment Party wins a MSW on debut at @ChurchillDowns! Congrats to breeder B. Flay Thoroughbreds! @bflay
pic.twitter.com/ZjPPyjC0FN

— WinStar Farm (@WinStarFarm) September 15, 2023

There are three reasons to forecast that Parchment Party has a lot more to offer: his pedigree, his birthday, and how well his beaten rivals have performed since.

1. Parchment Party is bred along the same lines as 2020 Derby favorite Tiz the Law.

Tiz the Law was arguably unlucky to come along in the year of the pandemic-delayed Derby. Had the 2020 Run for the Roses taken place as customary on the first Saturday in May, he would have entered in peak form as the smashing Florida Derby (G1) winner. Tiz the Law extended his winning streak in the Belmont (G1) – the first jewel of that year’s scrambled Triple Crown – and romped in the Travers (G1). By Labor Day weekend, however, late-developing Authentic blossomed to win the Derby, and odds-on favorite Tiz the Law began to regress as the runner-up.

Parchment Party, conceived during that season, is bred on the exact same cross as Tiz the Law. Both are by the hot young Tapit stallion Constitution and out of mares by Hall of Famer Tiznow, the only two-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

Also like Tiz the Law, Parchment Party hails from a strong female line. He is a half-brother to three stakes performers, notably Grade 1-winning turf miler American Patriot. Their dam (mother), Life Well Lived, is a full sister to Well Armed, who romped in the 2009 Dubai World Cup (G1). This is also the family of 2022 Kentucky Derby competitor Cyberknife, hero of the Arkansas Derby (G1) and Haskell (G1).

2. Parchment Party is achieving more than you’d expect for a June 5 foal.

With such a late foaling date, it would stand to reason for Parchment Party to need more time to develop than those born earlier in the spring. That’s especially true given his patient connections. Mott is known for taking time to bring youngsters along, so it’s a very encouraging sign that Parchment Party was ready to roll by mid-September.

It might be instructive to compare stablemate #20 Knightsbridge, another attractive Pool 3 option. The Godolphin homebred looked like a budding star in his 10-length debut at Churchill Nov. 4. Yet Knightsbridge, a May foal himself, has a pedigree profile suggestive of a flashy juvenile winner, more so than Parchment Party. It would be no surprise if Knightsbridge blossoms from here as well, but Parchment Party has the vibe of one exceeding expectations.

3. Parchment Party’s allowance has proven to be a key race.

While Parchment Party has yet to take his first stakes test, the form of his allowance win has been boosted by a couple of New Year’s Day stakes.

#10 Parchment Party goes from last to first in R8 at Churchill Downs under @james_d_graham for trainer Bill Mott! 🏇

🎥 #TwinSpiresReplay pic.twitter.com/0zWw8yBMEQ

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) November 9, 2023

Catching Freedom, the troubled fourth as the favorite in the Nov. 9 allowance, has since come back to win the Smarty Jones S. on the Road to the Kentucky Derby at Oaklawn Park. The Brad Cox trainee now has 10 points on the leaderboard.

First World War, runner-up to Parchment Party in the allowance, just missed narrowly in the Mucho Macho Man S. at Gulfstream Park. Other alumni of that same Churchill allowance include Khanate, later a distant third in the Jerome S. at Aqueduct, and Footprint, most recently fourth in the Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds.

At this early stage on the 2024 Kentucky Derby trail, many promising types can fly under the radar. That’s what makes it fun to prognosticate – and hope that your sneaky prospect makes good!

Note that Parchment Party closed at odds of 35-1 in Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager that ran over Thanksgiving weekend. You might get a similar, or even better, price in Pool 3, which closes Sunday evening.

You can scout out the Pool 3 interests with the free Brisnet Past Performances, monitor real-time odds, and wager at TwinSpires.com.