Timberlake, Mystik Dan clash in Arkansas Derby

Mar 25, 2024 Kellie Reilly/Brisnet.com

The winners of the past two Road to the Kentucky Derby events at Oaklawn Park, Rebel (G2) hero Timberlake and Southwest (G3) romper Mystik Dan, will square off in Saturday’s $1.5 million Arkansas Derby (G1). The grand finale of the prep races in Hot Springs offers the maximum points – on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale to the top five eligible finishers.

Timberlake already has a Grade 1 laurel from last fall’s Champagne (G1). Trained by Brad Cox, who captured last Saturday’s Louisiana Derby (G2) with Catching Freedom, Timberlake concluded his freshman season with a fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). The son of leading sire Into Mischief returned in the Feb. 24 Rebel, where he outclassed his opponents as the 4-5 favorite. The Arkansas Derby will give him more competition.

Timberlake earned 50 points on the Road to @KentuckyDerby 150 on Saturday with a win in the Rebel Stakes @OaklawnRacing!

Click the link below to add the @bradcoxracing trainee to your TwinSpires Stable Alerts!#NeverMissAWinner ⤵️ https://t.co/jRIwExxvL6 pic.twitter.com/HMYX1ZQBqj

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) February 26, 2024

Mystik Dan skipped the Rebel by design, with trainer Ken McPeek wanting to freshen him up after his breakout, eight-length demolition job in the Feb. 3 Southwest. As impressive as Mystik Dan was that day, the question is whether he was flattered by the muddy track. Oaklawn is forecast to be sunny and fast on Saturday, so we’ll find out if he can duplicate his performance in different conditions.

Mystik Dan pulled off the upset in dominating fashion in the Southwest on Saturday @OaklawnRacing.

The @KennyMcPeek trainee gained 20 points on the Road to @KentuckyDerby 150!

Click the link below to add him to your Stable Alerts!#NeverMissAWinner ⤵️ https://t.co/eI3sLEXcMA pic.twitter.com/e0nZxCS1MC

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) February 5, 2024

Shipping in from Southern California is Muth, who is ineligible for Derby points because trainer Bob Baffert is suspended by Churchill Downs Inc. Muth, winner of the 2023 American Pharoah (G1) and the Jan. 6 San Vicente (G2) in his latest, will provide a good gauge on whether Timberlake has progressed from last year. As the runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Muth beat Timberlake by 1 3/4 lengths.

Several veterans of the Oaklawn series will try to improve in the track’s marquee race. Liberal Arts, a late-running third in the Southwest, stands to benefit from stepping up to 1 1/8 miles in the Arkansas Derby, as a son of Hall of Famer Arrogate. In contrast, Southwest runner-up Just Steel may not be as suited to the stretch-out. Although he is by Triple Crown champion Justify, Just Steel was subsequently seventh in the Rebel, but you can never count out a D. Wayne Lukas trainee.

Steve Asmussen sends out a trio – Dimatic, a decent fifth in the Rebel straight from his maiden score; Informed Patriot, third in the Jan. 1 Smarty Jones S. here but coming off a disappointing fifth in the Sunland Derby (G3); and Imperial Gun, who makes his stakes debut.

Time for Truth, second in the six-furlong Ozark S., had to scratch from the Rebel but came back to take a 1 1/16-mile allowance. He brings a pedigree angle for trainer Ron Moquett, being by 2019 Arkansas Derby victor Omaha Beach. Rounding out the local brigade is thrice-raced maiden Will Take It.

The Arkansas Derby is scheduled as the 12th of 13 races on Saturday, a card including the Fantasy (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks. Post time is 7:47 p.m. (ET), and you can watch and wager on TwinSpires.com.