Expert Pick of the Week: 2024 Blue Grass Stakes

Apr 03, 2024

A total of 11 sophomores will travel 1 1/8 miles on the Keeneland dirt in Saturday’s $1 million Blue Grass S. (G1). The 2024 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series event will offer qualifying points towards the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs on May 4 on a 100-50-25-15-10 basis.

Risen Star S. (G2) hero Sierra Leone, one of three contenders in the field for conditioner Chad Brown, will make his second start of 2024 and looks best in the field. By Gun Runner, the $2.3 million yearling purchase debuted at Aqueduct in November and rallied to a nice victory in a one-mile maiden special weight event. The dark bay concluded his brief two-year-old season with a nose setback in the Remsen S. (G2) at the same venue on December 2.

Dornoch took home the Remsen Stakes on Saturday at Aqueduct to gain 10 points on the Road to @KentuckyDerby 150!

Click the link below to add him to your TwinSpires Stable Alerts and get notified the next time he runs! ⤵️https://t.co/pLwhtzcj2r pic.twitter.com/qZpKBjwGr2

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) December 6, 2023

Sierra Leone was equipped with blinkers at Fair Grounds last time out and responded well to the equipment change when running a fine field down in the latter stages of the nine-furlong contest. He was flattered when the third-place runner in that race, Catching Freedom, came back to impressively take the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his subsequent outing, as well.

The late runner lands in a field with ample early speed at Keeneland which will aid his powerful turn of foot in the stretch. He has posted a handful of consistent morning drills in advance of the feature, and I expect him to display his considerable ability once again with Tyler Gaffalione in the stirrups.

I will include a trio of runners beneath the top selection for the exotics. Danny Gargan’s Dornoch defeated the top pick in the Remsen last campaign and commenced his year with a measured score in the Fountain of Youth S. (G2) last time out. The full brother to reigning Derby victor Mage has never run a bad race and has obvious room for improvement in his second run off the shelf with Luis Saez in the controls.

Conditioner Brad Cox has a pair of talented runners in the field, including Gotham S. (G3) second Just A Touch. The Justify colt is bred to run long and he could surely move forward while making his two-turn debut on Saturday. And John Battaglia Memorial S. victor Encino has improved with each run to date and could be sitting on a big race while trying the dirt for the initial time. The Godolphin homebred will have to overcome drawing widest in the cast, but I think that he can, especially with Prat taking the reins.

Expert Pick

A trifecta with #10 Sierra Leone on top of #4 Dornoch, #6 Just A Touch, and #11 Encino in the 2024 Blue Grass Stakes is the Best Bet of the Week.