Expert Pick of the Week: 2024 Florida Derby

Mar 27, 2024 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

A total of 11 sophomores will run 1 1/8 miles on the Gulfstream Park main oval in Saturday’s $1 million Florida Derby (G1). The key 2024 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series tilt will offer 200 qualifying points to be distributed to the top five finishers of the contest (100-50-25-15-10).

Unbeaten Hades led at virtually every call en route to a smart victory in the Holy Bull S. (G3) in his route debut last time out and looks like a major player right back from an excellent post slot near the rail. By Awesome Slew, the bay overcame adversity in his debut run on December 9 but prevailed at the end in 5 1/2-furlong dash on the oval. He preceded the Holy Bull with a dominant, eight-length allowance victory while traveling seven panels.

Hades upsets in the Holy Bull (GIII): 1/5 favorite Fierceness finishes third.#KYDerby150 🌹 https://t.co/WxIT0JA8dp

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) February 4, 2024

The Florida-bred gelding has reportedly been training in very good fashion in the interim, and I expect the Joe Orseno trainee to take advantage of his starting slot and to be sent to the lead from the opening bell. Regular rider Paco Lopez will be in the silks aboard the leading selection once again.

Champion and reigning Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) victor Fierceness broke slowly and finished third in the Holy Bull in his three-year-old debut for conditioner Todd Pletcher. The Repole Stable homebred is capable of running huge, obviously, and his morning drills leading up to Saturday indicate that the son of City of Light will be ready to roll from the break under John Velazquez.

Fierceness returns from his @BreedersCup Juvenile victory on Saturday at Gulfstream in the Holy Bull.

Click the link below to add him and all of @NTamm1215's 5️⃣ horses to follow from the Florida Road to @KentuckyDerby 150!#NeverMissAWinner ⤵️ https://t.co/rZFPPrKoSA pic.twitter.com/tr8Ps0Lz2e

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) February 1, 2024

The Shug McGaughey-trained Conquest Warrior has impressed with a pair of visually appealing wins at this meeting in succession and will make his stakes debut in this difficult spot. By City of Light, the $1 million yearling purchase boasts arguably the best turn of foot in the field, and he is proven at nine furlongs, as well. The Kentucky-bred will have to get faster to take down this field, but he continues to train forwardly and wouldn’t be a surprise with Jose Ortiz retaining the mount.

Expert Pick

An exacta with #2 Hades on top of #9 Conquest Warrior and #10 Fierceness in the 2024 Florida Derby is the Best Bet of the Week.