Everything you need to know about the 2024 Kentucky Derby post positions
Apr 27, 2024
Fierceness wins the Florida Derby (Photo by Coglianese Photos)
Post positions for the 15oth Kentucky Derby (G1) were drawn on Saturday evening, kicking off the annual debate among bettors as to which horses drew well, which drew poorly, and which might enjoy favorable trips in the 2024 “Run for the Roses.”
Some conclusions will be anecdotal, based on gut feelings and the relative draws of well-regarded horses. Other takeaways will be based on cold, hard data—specifically, the post position statistics meticulously compiled by Churchill Downs since the starting gate was first introduced for the 1930 Kentucky Derby.
How many winners have broken from post 1? What’s the win percentage of post 15? What percent of horses finish in the money (first, second, or third) when breaking from post 5? Who was the last horse to win from post 14? How about the last horse to finish in the money from post 17?
If you find yourself asking any of these questions, we’ve got you covered with a convenient chart analyzing all the Kentucky Derby post position data:
| Post | 2024 Derby Starter | Record | Win % | ITM % | Last Winner | Last In-the-Money |
| 1 | Dornoch | 94-8-5-5 | 8.5% | 19.1% | Ferdinand (1986) | Lookin At Lee (2nd, 2017) |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | 94-7-5-13 | 7.4% | 26.6% | Affirmed (1978) | Revolutionary (3rd, 2013) |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | 94-5-8-8 | 5.3% | 22.3% | Real Quiet (1998) | Two Phil's (2nd, 2023) |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | 94-5-6-4 | 5.3% | 16.0% | Super Saver (2010) | Danza (3rd, 2014) |
| 5 | Catalytic | 94-10-8-4 | 10.6% | 23.4% | Always Dreaming (2017) | Audible (3rd, 2018) |
| 6 | Just Steel | 94-2-8-3 | 2.1% | 13.8% | Sea Hero (1993) | Good Magic (2nd, 2018) |
| 7 | Honor Marie | 93-8-6-6 | 8.6% | 21.5% | Mandaloun (2021) | Mandaloun (1st, 2021) |
| 8 | Just a Touch | 93-9-5-5 | 9.7% | 20.4% | Mage (2023) | Mage (1st, 2023) |
| 9 | Encino | 90-4-6-8 | 4.4% | 20.0% | Riva Ridge (1972) | Hot Rod Charlie (2nd, 2021) |
| 10 | T O Password | 87-9-6-10 | 10.3% | 28.7% | Giacomo (2005) | Zandon (3rd, 2022) |
| 11 | Forever Young | 83-2-6-4 | 2.4% | 14.5% | Winning Colors (1988) | Code of Honor (2nd, 2019) |
| 12 | Track Phantom | 79-3-3-4 | 3.8% | 12.7% | Canonero II (1971) | Angel of Empire (3rd, 2023) |
| 13 | West Saratoga | 77-5-5-7 | 6.5% | 22.1% | Nyquist (2016) | Nyquist (1st, 2016) |
| 14 | Endlessly | 67-2-6-6 | 3.0% | 20.9% | Carry Back (1961) | Essential Quality (3rd, 2021) |
| 15 | Domestic Product | 62-6-2-1 | 9.7% | 14.5% | Authentic (2020) | Authentic (1st, 2020) |
| 16 | Grand Mo the First | 51-4-3-3 | 7.8% | 19.6% | Animal Kingdom (2011) | Commanding Curve (2nd, 2014) |
| 17 | Fierceness | 44-0-1-2 | 0.0% | 6.8% | None | Forty Niner (2nd, 1988) |
| 18 | Stronghold | 36-2-4-0 | 5.6% | 16.7% | Country House (2019) | Country House (1st, 2019) |
| 19 | Resilience | 31-1-1-0 | 3.3% | 6.7% | I'll Have Another (2012) | I'll Have Another (1st, 2012) |
| 20 | Society Man | 19-2-0-1 | 11.1% | 16.7% | Rich Strike (2022) | Rich Strike (1st, 2022) |
A total of 22 horses have entered the 2024 Kentucky Derby. In addition to the 20 horses listed in the table above, Epic Ride (#21) and Mugatu (#22) are on the also-eligible list.
In the event one or more horses scratch from the main body of the field, all horses drawn outside of the scratched horse(s) will move inward, and Epic Ride and/or Mugatu will draw into the field and start from the outside post(s). In 2022, #21 Rich Strike drew in off the also-eligible list and started from post 20. Capitalizing on a fast pace, he rallied to victory at odds of 80-1, joining Big Brown (2008) as one of two Kentucky Derby winners to break from post 20.
After analyzing the data in the post positions chart, here are a few key takeaways:
• Post 1 is widely considered a disadvantage since it’s difficult for horses to work out a clean trip while breaking from the inside of a 20-horse field. But while post 1 hasn’t produced a Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986, post 2, post 9, post 12, post 14, and post 17 have endured even longer streaks of frustration. Post 14 hasn’t produced a Derby winner since Carry Back in 1961, and horses breaking from post 17 have gone 0-for-44. That's right—post 17 has yet to produce a Kentucky Derby winner.
• Not every Kentucky Derby features a full field, so inside posts are more likely to compile high win percentages than outside posts. In a 10-horse field, each post has a 10% chance at producing the winner. In a 20-horse field, each post has a 5% chance.
• Keeping that in mind, it’s notable how many Kentucky Derby winners have broken from outside posts in recent years. Eight of the last 13 winners (62%) started from post 13 or wider, suggesting unencumbered trips are more important than saving ground in the Kentucky Derby.
• But based on a strict reading of the statistics, post 5 ranks among the best positions a horse can hope to draw. Not only has post 5 produced the most winners (10), the most runners-up (eight, tied with posts 3 and 6), and the second-highest win percentage (10.6%), it also produced a top-five finisher in every Kentucky Derby from 2012 through 2019. This impressive streak included the victorious duo of California Chrome (2014) and Always Dreaming (2017).
• Post 15 has been particularly advantageous in the last dozen years, producing Kentucky Derby winners Orb (2013), American Pharoah (2015), and Authentic (2020). Post 7 has also fared well, churning out Justify (2018) and Mandaloun (2021), while post 8 has yielded Mine That Bird (2009) and Mage (2023) in the last 15 years.
Will Fierceness become the first Kentucky Derby winner to break from post 17? Will Catalytic add to the decorated resume of post 5?
Will Dornoch overcome the rail draw? Will Sierra Leone, Encino, Track Phantom, or Endlessly reverse the long losing streaks for their respective post positions?
We’ll find out on the first Saturday in May.
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