Expert Pick of the Week: 2024 Rebel Stakes

Feb 22, 2024 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

A big field of 13 three-year-olds will travel 1 1/16 miles on the Oaklawn dirt in Saturday’s lucrative, $1.25 million Rebel S. (G2). The 2024 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series will reward the top five finishers with a total of 105 qualifying points (50-25-15-10-5) towards the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs on May 4.

WinStar Farm’s Timberlake is a towering presence in the field as he commences his sophomore campaign, and the Kentucky-bred will be difficult to upend in the feature. Trained by Brad Cox, the son of top sire Into Mischief had a fine juvenile season led by a victory in the Champagne S. (G1) at Aqueduct, and he also finished second in the Hopeful S. (G1) at Saratoga.

Timberlake, who finished a solid fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) in his two-year-old finale, has reportedly been training in excellent fashion in advance of Saturday. The bay colt has a measure of tactical speed, and has earned triple-digit Brisnet Late Pace numbers in his two route races to date, as well. Christian Torres inherits the mount atop the formidable favorite.

Where's our @jtimberlake fans at!? 🎶

#7 Timberlake gets blinkers and romps in R6 at Ellis Park for trainer @bradcoxracing under @flothejock. The 2-year-old colt is owned by @WinStarFarm and @SienaFarmKY. 🤩

🎥 #TwinSpiresReplay pic.twitter.com/JfsNdiANpY

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) July 21, 2023

Conditioner Steve Asmussen has a trio of talented sophomores in the field, and I include each of them under the top selection. Carbone dominated his first two assignments before stopping early in the Southwest S. (G3) over a muddy strip last time out, and he will improve in his second local appearance. The Mitole colt is fast early and well drawn on the rail, so I expect him to be in the hunt from the break with Isaac Castillo picking up the ride.

Dimatic has shown some improvement with each career try to date, led by a clear maiden win last time out. By Gun Runner, the Winchell homebred will add blinkers, which is interesting, and he will also have Tyler Gaffalione in the irons, which is a major bonus.

Lagynos went too fast early in the Smarty Jones S. before tiring in the lane in his most recent performance, and the Kantharos colt will be more relaxed in the early going. The Kentucky-bred chestnut flashed nice potential in his first trio of races and will be a top-three presence with something resembling those showings. Keith Asmussen has the call.

Expert Pick

A trifecta with #7 Timberlake on top of #1 Carbone, #6 Dimatic, and #9 Lagynos in the 2024 Rebel Stakes is the Best Bet of the Week.