Takeaways from 2024 Florida Derby

Apr 02, 2024 James Scully

The $1 million Florida Derby (G1) took place at Gulfstream Park on March 30, and the 1 1/8-mile race will look to provide the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner for the second straight year. Mage went on to wear the roses after finishing second last year, and Always Dreaming (2017), Nyquist (2016), and Orb (2013) have turned the Florida Derby-Kentucky Derby double in the last 11 years. The major qualifier offered points on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale toward a berth in the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby on May 4.

Here are three takeaways from the Florida Derby.

Fierceness brilliantly stakes claim for Kentucky Derby favoritism

Fierceness put on a dazzling display of superiority in the Florida Derby, scoring by 13 1/2 lengths while under wraps through most of the stretch, and the champion two-year-old male registered a 106 Brisnet Speed rating, easily the top number from the 20 Kentucky Derby qualifiers (in America) this year.

The dynamic frontrunner established himself as the probable Kentucky Derby favorite.

Fierceness held that role for most of the winter following a scintillating victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), generating a whopping 112 Speed rating for the 6 1/4-length decision, but he got bounced around at the start of his seasonal debut, the Feb. 3 Holy Bull (G3), and wound up a disappointing third at 1-5 odds.

The bay colt rebounded spectacularly in the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby, and Fierceness will bring speed to the first leg of the Triple Crown. Two-time Kentucky Derby winner Todd Pletcher trains and three-time Kentucky Derby winner John Velazquez rides the Mike Repole homebred son of City of Light.

Fierceness delivered in yesterday's Florida Derby, picking up 100 #KentuckyDerby points! 🌹

Vance Hanson has a recap of the race! ⤵️ @KentuckyDerby https://t.co/vy6IjdiOI5

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) March 31, 2024

Mental fortitude

His talent is a given, but Fierceness has yet to string together wins during a five-race career. He’s struggled at the break in both setbacks.

After romping by 11 1/4 lengths the first time out at Saratoga, Fierceness lunged at the start of the Champagne (G1) and never recovered, fading to seventh at odds-on. He bounced back at 16-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but never appeared comfortable after a less-than-favorable beginning and came up empty late in the Holy Bull.

The break will be important in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field. Fierceness got clear quickly in the Florida Derby and had everything his own way on the front end. Connections would love to see a similar trip at Churchill Downs, but there promises to be more speed and much stiffer competition.

Fierceness brings a star quality to the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby, and he will look to put all immaturity questions aside with a strong performance.

Hades misses break, Conquest Warrior lacks necessary finishing kick

Fierceness' main two rivals entering the Florida Derby, Holy Bull upsetter Hades and last-out allowance winner Conquest Warrior, never made an impact.

After winning his first three outings on the front end, Hades was caught flatfooted from post 2 and wound up stuck behind horses entering the first turn, dropping back to last at one point before finishing fifth. It would have been interesting to see how Fierceness responded to early pressure, but it never materialized due to Hades’ slow start.

Conquest Warrior displayed a fine late kick breaking his maiden and winning a nine-furlong allowance by five lengths in his two previous appearances at Gulfstream, and he had every chance to earn at least a minor award at the top of the Florida Derby stretch, but he couldn’t outfinish 21-1 Grand Mo the First, who held third throughout over the final three-quarters of a mile after a forward trip.

Catalytic took up a stalking position in second entering the first turn and remained clear in that spot the rest of the way while losing ground to Fierceness, winding up 2 1/2 lengths better than Grand Mo the First. Off at 29-1, Catalytic was difficult to gauge entering his stakes and two-turn debut.

After capturing his debut over 6 1/2 furlongs last October, the Saffie Joseph-trained colt came back five months with a runner-up effort in a six-furlong entry-level allowance at Tampa Bay Downs on March 8. Catalytic took a huge step forward 22 days later in the Florida Derby and likely guaranteed himself a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby with the 50-point prize, but his performance seemingly did not flatter the competition.