Takeaways from 2024 Arkansas Derby

Apr 02, 2024 James Scully

The Road to the Kentucky Derby series made its final stop in Hot Springs for the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby (G1) on March 30, and the major qualifier offered points on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale at Oaklawn Park.

Here are three takeaways from the Arkansas Derby.

Muth a major Preakness player

Muth returned from a near three-month freshening with a sharp performance, scoring by two lengths in the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby, but the three-time stakes winner won’t contest the Kentucky Derby (G1) on May 4 since he’s trained by Bob Baffert, who is currently suspended by Churchill Downs.

Winner of the American Pharoah (G1) and second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last year, Muth was making his first appearance since a convincing win in the seven-furlong San Vicente (G2) in early January. By Good Magic, the sire of 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage, Muth can make his own trip with his positional speed and established himself a major contender for the second leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness (G1) on May 18.

Muth wins the G1 Arkansas Derby! 🏆 pic.twitter.com/4F7k0VGF8J

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) March 31, 2024

Sneaky second for Lukas-trained Just Steel

Four-time Kentucky Derby winner D. Wayne Lukas is back in the spotlight with Just Steel, who guaranteed himself a spot in a 20-horse field at Churchill Downs by finishing second in the Arkansas Derby, jumping to eighth on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with a 65-point total.

Unplaced in a pair of Grade 1 stakes last year, Just Steel concluded his juvenile campaign with a victory in the 6 1/2-furlong Ed Brown S. at Churchill Downs. Lukas remained confident in his charge at longer distances, though, and Just Steel opened 2024 with a respectable second to Catching Freedom in the one-mile Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn in early January.

The Justify colt followed with a non-threatening second in the Southwest (G3), but Just Steel’s disappointing seventh in the Feb. 24 Rebel (G2) called into question his overall quality and affinity for longer distances. He rebounded with a much-improved effort in the Arkansas Derby, determinedly trying to reel in Muth through the stretch drive while clearly second best, and the bay colt registered a commendable 97 Brisnet Speed rating.

Lukas has had late bloomers play a significant Kentucky Derby role previously. In 1999, Charismatic finished second in a high-priced claiming race in early February, and his well-beaten fourth at 44-1 odds in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) three starts later provided little optimism. Charismatic turned things around with a victory in the Lexington (G3) next out and continued to flourish in the build-up to the main event, upsetting the Kentucky Derby at 31-1.

Just Steel has something going for him following the runner-up finish Saturday.

#7 Just Steel upsets at 12/1 in the Ed Brown S. at Churchill Downs for trainer D. Wayne Lukas with @jrosariojockey in the saddle! 💰

🎥 #TwinSpiresReplay pic.twitter.com/hFX2u8wuZa

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) November 25, 2023

Mystik Dan rooting for wet conditions; Timberlake to bypass Derby

Mystik Dan did not disgrace himself, closing belatedly for third, 4 1/4 lengths back of Just Steel, but he took a step back off an impressive eight-length win in the Southwest that netted him a 101 Speed rating. The Southwest came over a muddy oval, and trainer Kenny McPeek would probably relish a wet track in the Kentucky Derby.

Timberlake, the 11-10 favorite off a two-length win in the Rebel, settled into a seemingly advantageous stalking position behind rivals approaching the first turn of the Arkansas Derby, but he suddenly took off for the lead on the bend and wound up showing the way into the backstretch after the premature move. Muth was breathing down his neck to the outside and by the conclusion of the far turn, Timberlake had surrendered the advantage, weakening to be a well-beaten fourth.

A two-time stakes winner, Timberlake owns the points (81) but won't contest the Kentucky Derby, cutting back in distance for his next start.