Takeaways from 2024 UAE Derby

Apr 02, 2024 James Scully

The $1 million UAE Derby (G2) at Meydan on March 30 served as a major qualifier in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series, offering points on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale toward a berth in the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby (G1) on May 4, and 1 3/16-mile race will produce a Japanese-based starter at Churchill Downs for the third consecutive year.

Here are three takeaways from the UAE Derby.

Japanese star remains unbeaten

Forever Young looks poised to provide Japan with their best chance to win the Kentucky Derby, improving his record to 5-for-5 in the UAE Derby. He broke from an unfavorable outside post and lost ground the entire way, but the son of Real Steel would not be denied, wearing down a stubborn pacesetter to score comfortably by two lengths with regular rider Ryusei Sakai.

After three convincing wins in Japan last year, including a pair of about 1 1/8-mile stakes tallies, Forever Young took his game on the road in 2024. He overcame a poor start to gallantly run down Book’em Danno over a one-turn mile distance that didn’t favor him in the Feb. 24 Saudi Derby (G3), and the bay colt considered to showcase his top-class skills despite an extremely wide trip in the UAE Derby.

“He did not travel well from Japan to Saudi Arabia, so he was not in great condition but he still performed very well,” trainer Yoshoti Yahagi said. “After traveling from Riyadh to Dubai he improved and he has so much potential, I always have a lot of confidence in him.”

Closely related on the dam side to presumptive Blue Grass (G1) favorite Sierra Leone, Forever Young will face a difficult challenge in the Kentucky Derby, but it would be foolish to dismiss his chances outright. Japanese runners continue to make more of a serious impact on the world stage every year, and now that they have their sights on the Kentucky Derby, many believe it’s just a matter of when it will happen.

“Of course, it will be very difficult to manage the horse’s condition (traveling) from Dubai to Kentucky, but I really believe my team will be able to get him in good order,” Yahagi said.

Japanese-based Derma Sotogake, the 2023 UAE Derby winner, finished seventh at 7.60-1 odds in last year’s Kentucky Derby. Forever Young appears more formidable and it should be no surprise to see him leave the Kentucky Derby starting gate at a shorter price. The unbeaten sensation is eligible to receive a groundswell of support in the build-up to the race.

The Japanese 🇯🇵 do it again in the UAE Derby!

FOREVER YOUNG overcomes a wide trip to earn 100 @KentuckyDerby points. 🌹

#フォーエバーヤング

Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi#TwinSpiresReplay pic.twitter.com/F3KWuCAruD

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) March 30, 2024

Bucking international trend

The UAE Derby has failed to produce a top three finisher in the Kentucky Derby since becoming a qualifier in 2008. Mendelssohn appeared to have a viable chance following his 18 1/2-length win in 2018, but he never fired over a sloppy track at 6.80-1, checking in last at Churchill Downs.

With the Japanese setting their sights on it, the UAE Derby’s quality has improved in recent years. We’ll see if that translates to the Kentucky Derby this year with Forever Young.

Venezuelan-based Canonero II in 1971 was the last international shipper to win the Kentucky Derby.

Wide trip at Churchill?

Forever Young was guided immediately outside following a slow start in the Saudi Derby, intentionally avoiding any kickback while rallying wide to win, and he continued to take the overland route in the UAE Derby.

And given his stalking style, it’s fair to question how he will deal with potential kickback in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field. It may not prove to be a serious issue, but it is a point of discussion considering the tactics employed in both trips this year.