Takeaways from 2023 Louisiana Derby

Mar 28, 2023 James Scully/TwinSpires.com

Twelve runners lined up for the $1
million Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds, a major qualifier
in the
Road to the Kentucky Derby series awarding points on a 100-40-30-20-10
scale to the top five finishers, and a new face emerged on the Kentucky Derby
leaderboard.

Kingsbarns
dominates wire-to-wire

Kingsbarns seized the initiative at the start, establishing a
moderate pace (:49.60 and 1:14.69) on a clear lead, and saved plenty for the
stretch, rolling to a 3 1/2-length victory. Unraced at age two, two-time
Kentucky Derby winner Todd Pletcher trains the bay colt, whose sire Uncle Mo
produced 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, and Kingsbarns is now undefeated
from three starts.

Flavien Prat picked up the mount, and Kingsbarns came home
quickly, netting a 109 Brisnet Speed rating after completing his final
three-sixteenths of a mile in 18.20 seconds. He earned a career-best 98 Speed
figure, and the up-and-coming sophomore takes his track with him, making all
three starts at different tracks.

Kingsbarns has broken sharply every time, but he eased back
to stalk the early pace in his first two outings, breaking his maiden over a
one-turn mile at Gulfstream and winning a two-turn allowance at Tampa Bay Downs
by open lengths.

Appealing speed

Skepticism was anticipated. Kingsbarns had everything his
own way in a paceless race and won’t get away with six furlongs in 1:14 and change
in the Kentucky Derby, but considering the dearth of speed lining up for the 2023 edition of the Run for the Roses, I’m buying Kingsbarns’ wire-to-wire win in the Louisiana Derby.

He can make his own trip and is the only active wire-to-wire
winner of a Kentucky Derby qualifier this year. Indeed, Kingsbarns is one of only
two viable speed prospects in the prospective field presently (along with Geaux
Rocket Ride).

Last year’s hot Kentucky Derby pace was more of an anomaly
in my estimation. In 2020 and 2021, horses led every step of the way on a
moderate pace under the Twin Spires.

Kingsbarns has displayed excellent gate speed in every start,
and Prat is an edge, posting a 1-1-2 record from five Kentucky Derby appearances.

Encouraging
progress from Disarm; Instant Coffee must regroup

Disarm ran well
for second in his stakes debut. After stalking in sixth, the Steve
Asmussen-trained colt was forced to wait in traffic before getting clear in
upper stretch, finishing fast to be nearly four lengths clear of fourth. A
maiden winner at Saratoga two starts previously, Disarm looks primed for
another step forward in his third start of the form cycle.

Instant Coffee, the 3-2 favorite off a convincing
win in the Lecomte (G3), never made an impact rallying belatedly for sixth.
Trained by Brad Cox, Instant Coffee remains eligible to bounce back with an
improved showing — Mandaloun rebounded for Cox in the 2021 Kentucky Derby after
a well-beaten sixth in the Louisiana Derby — but Instant Coffee’s dedicated
closing style doesn’t appear favorable.