Three takeaways from 2024 Southwest

Feb 06, 2024 James Scully

The 1 1/16-mile Southwest (G3) on Feb. 3 served as the second of four Kentucky Derby qualifiers at Oaklawn Park, awarding points on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale toward a berth in the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby on May 4. The Road to the Kentucky Derby series will be back in Hot Springs, Arkansas for the $1.25 million Rebel (G2) on Feb. 24 and $1.5 million Arkansas Derby (G1) on March 30.

Here are three takeaways from the Southwest.

Mystik Dan delivers monster performance in mud

Mystik Dan broke sharply from post 9 but dropped back and was angled to the rail in midpack by Brian Hernandez Jr. entering the first turn. The Kenny McPeek-trained colt saved ground in sixth along the backstretch and after advancing closer on the final turn, Mystik Dan cut the corner with a powerful turn of foot inside of a pair of rivals.

Runner-up Just Steel tried to fight back when challenged, but Mystik Dan stuck a head in front while straightening for home and drew off spectacularly through the stretch, winning under wraps by an eight-length margin. The Kentucky-bred son of Goldencents registered his first stakes win, improving his lifetime record to 5-2-1-0, and the race came back fast.

Along with a whopping 112 Brisnet Late Pace number, Mystik Dan earned a 101 Speed rating, seven points better than his previous best for a 5 1/2-furlong maiden win last fall.

Mystik Dan pulled off the upset in dominating fashion in the Southwest on Saturday @OaklawnRacing.

The @KennyMcPeek trainee gained 20 points on the Road to @KentuckyDerby 150!

Click the link below to add him to your Stable Alerts!#NeverMissAWinner ⤵️ https://t.co/eI3sLEXcMA pic.twitter.com/e0nZxCS1MC

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) February 5, 2024

Back it up

The drying-out track was upgraded to muddy prior to the Southwest, and Mystik Dan improved significantly from previous efforts while switching to rating tactics.

“He needed to learn how to rate,” McPeek said, adding that Mystik Dan will wait for the Arkansas Derby for his next start.

The Arkansas Derby will tell us more. Off at 11-1, Mystik Dan had never shown similar form under fast conditions, finishing a non-threatening fifth in the Smarty Jones S. on New Year’s Day, and he will need to prove the Southwest wasn’t a fluke.

Recent Southwest winners have not fared well in their next start, with 2021 champion three-year-old male Essential Quality being the only one to win their next start in the last decade.

Favorites fare poorly

Just Steel completed the exacta at 10-1, and the hard-trying colt relishes sprint and middle distances. Street Sense (G3) winner Liberal Arts, who was off as the 4.90-1 third choice, rallied belatedly for third, and he was only runner in the top five at less than double-digit odds.

Carbone faltered on the stretch out to 8 1/2 furlongs as the 9-5 favorite in his stakes debut. Springboard Mile winner Otto the Conqueror, the 4-1 second choice, weakened to sixth after setting the pace, and Los Alamitos Derby (G2) victor Wynstock retreated to last as the 6-1 fourth choice.