Three takeaways from 2024 Withers

Feb 06, 2024 James Scully

The second of four Kentucky Derby (G1) qualifiers at Aqueduct in 2024, the 1 1/8-mile Withers (G3) on Feb. 3 awarded points on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale toward a berth in the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby on May 4. The Road to the Kentucky Derby series will return for the Gotham (G3) on March 2 and the Wood Memorial (G2) on April 6.

Here are three takeaways from the Withers.

Uncle Heavy gets up on wire

Uncle Heavy needed the entire length of the strength, but he wore down El Grande O in the final strides to score by a nose in the Withers. Last seen defeating Pennsylvania-bred rivals in the Dec. 27 Wait for It S. at Parx, the Butch Reid-trained colt registered his first open and graded stakes tally, winning three of four career starts, and Mychel Sanchez came from Parx to ride.

By Social Inclusion, Uncle Heavy stalked within a couple of lengths of the lead while traveling wide during the opening stages, but he lost ground when El Grande O surged to a clear lead rounding the far turn. Uncle Heavy had plenty of ground to make up turning for home, and circumstances appeared dire as he appeared to be racing evenly, but the bay found his best stride in the final sixteenth of a mile and closed determinedly in late stretch to prevail.

Uncle Heavy finished strong as an underdog to win the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct in a photo finish to gain 20 points on the Road to @KentuckyDerby 150!

Click the link below to add him to your TwinSpires Stable Alerts!#NeverMissAWinner ⤵️ https://t.co/BQiP3VWGQx pic.twitter.com/e23WFKCbhu

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) February 5, 2024

Questions still linger

The Withers featured a dawdling pace over a muddy track and Uncle Heavy didn’t finish fast, registering a moderate 94 Brisnet Speed rating for the win. He’ll need to run faster against deeper competition in upcoming engagements.

A non-threatening third in the 2014 Preakness (G1), Social Inclusion never won past 1 1/16 miles and is best known as a sprint/middle distance sire. Uncle Heavy’s dam, the Tiz Wonderful mare Expect Wonderful, never raced past six furlongs, and Uncle Heavy is the lone black-type performer in the first three generations of the female family. His breeding doesn’t inspire confidence for the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby distance.

The Withers hasn’t been a meaningful Kentucky Derby prep since becoming moving to its early-season date. It produced Preakness (G1) winner Early Voting (2022), who skipped the Kentucky Derby, but Revolutionary’s third-place finish in the 2013 Kentucky Derby is the best result for a Withers participant since it became a prep race.

Tough beat for El Grande O; Lightline disappoints

A New York-bred stakes winner at distances of six furlongs and a mile, El Grande O faced pressure from the start and ran his eyeballs out to just miss at a 1 1/8-mile distance beyond his best scope. He likes Aqueduct and a wet track, and the cut back to a one-turn mile in the Gotham should benefit him, but the competition figures to get deeper.

Lightline, bet down to 1.15-1 favoritism following a rallying second in an Oaklawn allowance, lacked the necessary rally from just off the pace, checking in a well-beaten third.