Takeaways from 2023 Blue Grass

Apr 11, 2023 James Scully/TwinSpires.com

A major qualifier in the Road to
the Kentucky Derby series, the Blue
Grass (G1) may have a serious impact this year. The top two appear legitimate,
and were separated by a neck on the wire, and the 1 1/8-mile event at Keeneland
could produce 25% of the
Kentucky Derby field, as the first five finishers own the points to
qualify.

1. Tapit
Trice more professional, primed for best

Tapit Trice walked
out of the starting gate and came under an early ride when making his stakes and
two-turn debut in the March 11 Tampa Bay Derby (G3), and he didn’t start
to make serious headway until late on the far turn, rolling past rivals in the
stretch to win going away by two lengths. Those kind of late-running theatrics don’t
appear favorable for the 2023 Kentucky Derby, and Tapit Trice took a huge step
forward in the Blue Grass.

He’s not quick from the gate but didn’t break last like in the
12-horse Tampa Bay Derby, and Tapit Trice was hustled along and angled off the
rail by Luis Saez into the first turn. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt advanced
to reach fourth by the backstretch, settling only 2 1/2 lengths off the pace
after the opening half-mile, and the gray son of Tapit rallied wide on the far
turn to draw nearly even with the leaders entering the stretch.

Verifying tracked
in second before taking a short lead into the stretch, and he responded when
called upon by Tyler Gaffalione, determinedly engaging his
foe. The eventual runner-up appeared to come out and bump Tapit Trice late, but
the contact made no difference as Tapit Trice kept charging and forged command
in the final yards.

Stewards quickly disallowed a jockey’s objection from
Gaffalione afterward.

Tapit Trice earned a career-best 102 Brisnet Speed rating, which is tied for the
third-best number from a 2023 Kentucky Derby qualifying race, and registered a
third consecutive triple-digit Late Pace rating (102). He’s progressed
favorably for a two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer, and Pletcher will feature
a deep Kentucky Derby roster with favored Forte
and Louisiana Derby winner Kingsbarns
joining Tapit Trice.

The neck decision appears to set up Tapit Trice nicely for
his main engagement, and the trip will be important for the off-the-pace
runner. If he can avoid getting bumped around too much in a 20-horse field,
Tapit Trice possesses the turn of foot to make a serious impact.

2. Verifying
brings speed

Verifying is Kentucky
Derby-bound for Brad Cox, ranking 13th on the Kentucky Derby
leaderboard with 54 points, and he’s the lone runner in the main body of
the field presently designated as an “E,” or early type.

He may not be on the lead from the start, but Verifying has
the speed to make his own trip up close. By Triple Crown winner Justify, the
bay colt is a half-brother to champion older mare and $7-million earner
Midnight Bisou, and Verifying is discovering his best form presently, stepping
up with a strong Blue Grass performance after a fourth as the favorite in the
Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park.

Verifying received his first triple-digit Speed figure
(102), and even if he’s not good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, his tactical
ability will offer appeal for the vertical exotics.

Cox also has Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Angel of Empire, Wood Memorial (G2) runner-up Hit Show, and Louisiana Derby runner-up Jace’s Road in the main body of the Kentucky Derby field presently.

3. Decisions
looming for Blazing Sevens, Sun Thunder, Raise Cain

Blazing Sevens, Sun Thunder, and Raise Cain weren’t a serious factor finishing third through fifth,
but all improved their position in the latter stages and are guaranteed a spot
in the Kentucky Derby field if their connections opt for the race.

Following a well-beaten eighth in the Fountain of Youth
(G2), Blazing Sevens rebounded with a rallying third in the Blue Grass and increased
his point total to 46. The Kentucky Derby has been the target all year for the
Chad Brown-trained colt. Blazing Sevens needed the race after opening the year
with a clunker, and the Good Magic colt would be a candidate to keep advancing next
time. Why wouldn’t he be in the Kentucky Derby field?

Sun Thunder showed more than he did finishing a well-beaten fifth
in the Louisiana Derby, advancing to fourth by the conclusion of the far turn
and holding his position to the wire. An argument can be made that his best
races are in front of him, distance doesn’t look like any issue for the Into
Mischief colt, and Kenny McPeek, who has won a Preakness and recorded a second
in the Kentucky Derby, has Sun Thunder pegged as a Triple Crown type.

Raise Cain didn’t need any points, earning 50 for his win in
the Gotham (G3) in early March, and closed from 10th for fifth in the Blue Grass,
missing fourth by a head. The Gotham came at a one-turn mile, so the
possibility exists for connections to opt out for shorter-distance races, but turning
down the opportunity to run in the Kentucky Derby is easier said than done.