Takeaways from 2023 Arkansas Derby

Apr 04, 2023 James Scully/TwinSpires.com

The Road to the Kentucky Derby series in Arkansas concluded
with a dominant performance in the $1.25
million Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park, a major qualifier awarding
points on a 100-40-30-20-10 basis toward a Kentucky Derby
berth.

1. Angel of
Empire a resounding winner

Angel of Empire left
the starting gate as the 4.70-1 fourth choice following a one-length win in the Feb. 18 Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds, but he left no
doubt about superiority recording a 4 1/4-length victory. The up-and-coming
colt put the race away by the top of the stretch, launching a scintillating
move on the far turn to overhaul rivals, and he’s become more dynamic with experience.

The effectiveness of his off-the-pace run style for the
Kentucky Derby can be debated, but it’s probably best not to underestimate
Angel of Empire’s blossoming form.

He wasn’t following the same path of other Brad Cox-trained
Kentucky Derby prospects last year, making his career debut at Horseshoe
Indianapolis and returning to the same venue for an allowance after an unplaced
effort on turf, and Angel of Empire surprised bettors when finishing a
non-threatening second at 18-1 in his stakes debut, the Smarty Jones S. on Jan.
1.

The son of Classic Empire showed more in the Risen Star, taking
advantage of a pace collapse, but it was more of a workmanlike performance,
dueling with fellow deep closer Sun Thunder through most of the stretch before
edging away late. Sun Thunder couldn’t back it up, finishing a well-beaten fifth
in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 25, but Angel of Empire appeared to move forward
significantly in the Arkansas Derby.

He registered a career-best 101 Brisnet Speed rating, which is the fourth-highest
number so far after Two Phil’s (107 in Jeff Ruby Steaks [G3]), Forte (103 in
Fountain of Youth [G2]), and Practical Move (102 in San Felipe [G2]), and Angel
of Empire appears to be peaking for a Kentucky Derby-winning trainer.

2. Decision
looms for Prat

Flavien Prat brings his A-game to the Kentucky Derby,
recording top three finishes from four of five Kentucky Derby mounts. He won
the 2019 Kentucky Derby via disqualification aboard 65-1 Country House and
guided Battle of Midway to a third at 40-1 in 2017.

The French-born jockey has a big choice to make regarding
his 2023 Kentucky Derby assignment.

Prat picked up the mount on Kingsbarns for the Louisiana Derby, convincingly
leading wire-to-wire at Fair Grounds, and while the Todd Pletcher-trained colt’s
inexperience (three career starts) is a concern, Kingsbarns has the positional ability
to make his own trip in a year when little speed is being assembled for the
Kentucky Derby.

Angel of Empire added Prat for the Arkansas Derby, and the bay
colt’s turn of foot on the far turn may bode well for the Kentucky Derby.

It’s an enviable position for Prat, but not an easy
decision.

3. King
Russell joins leaderboard, Reincarnate appears safe

Three overseas runners with guaranteed berths are under
serious consideration, which would leave 17 spots in the Kentucky Derby
starting gate, and last-out maiden winner King
Russell joined a crowded Kentucky Derby leaderboard by rallying for second
at 58-1 in the Arkansas Derby.

It looks like the points threshold will be higher than
previous years.

Currently ranked 17th with 40 points, King Russell’s positioning
couldn’t be more tenuous. He will drop in the standings after three major
qualifiers – the Blue Grass (G1), Santa Anita Derby (G1), and Wood Memorial
(G2) — are held Saturday, but there’s always attrition in the weeks leading up to
the first Saturday in May.

Winner of the Sham (G3) and third in the Rebel (G2), Reincarnate appears well-positioned to
make the Kentucky Derby field after finishing third in the Arkansas Derby,
ranking 13th with 45 points.